OKLO Nearly Halved in 2026: 240% Returns to Materialize in 12 Months Says One Wall Street Pro

Alex SiroisWed, October 7, 2026 at 4:45 PM UTC

0

Parilov / Shutterstock.comQuick Read -

Oklo trades at $39, down 46% in 2026, while Tigress Financial's Ivan Feinseth sees $130 as a price target representing roughly 240% upside if Aurora INL launches on schedule in 2028.

NuScale and Nano Nuclear fell 43% and 31% this year respectively, confirming Oklo's slide is a sector-wide SMR selloff, not an isolated collapse.

Oklo holds $3 billion in cash but burned through equity raises and rising spend, pushing EPS estimates sharply negative for 2026.

Building a portfolio and living off one are two completely different skills, and almost nobody teaches the second. This problem is what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps, and it is free today. Read more here. (Sponsor)

Oklo (NYSE:OKLO) is priced at $38.57. The average analyst price target sits at $75.78, which implies about 96% upside.

Oklo is building the Aurora powerhouse, a sodium-cooled fast reactor designed to sell electricity directly to customers under long-term power purchase agreements. A 12 GW master power agreement with Switch placed Oklo as a key play on AI power demand.

The gap matters because Oklo reported trailing revenue of just $1.21 million. Every target depends on plants still years from running, meaning either the market or analysts have the timeline badly wrong.

A Nuclear Darling Lost Nearly Half Its Value as the Market Climbed

Heavy share issuance is the biggest reason Oklo is down 46.25% this year. The company raised $1.9 billion through at-the-market programs in 2026, then started a fresh at-the-market equity program to replace the old one. Over the past year the stock has fallen 72.16%, and its 52-week range runs from $193.84 down to $34.38. That is a violent drawdown.

Spending sped up the decline. In Q2, management raised 2026 cash burn guidance to $120 million to $150 million from $80 to $100 million and lifted capital spending to $400 to $500 million. Aurora INL now targets a 2028 startup. The average 2026 EPS estimate fell to -0.9392 from -0.6955 90 days earlier.

Now Available: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income

Many successful investors eventually reach the same moment. The saving is done, the portfolio is built, and the question quietly changes from how much can I grow this to how much can I take out? Get that second question wrong and decades of good investing can come apart in a handful of years.

That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income  helps answer. It covers what your retirement could actually cost, which income sources are worth using, and the withdrawal math that decides whether the money lasts. It is free today from Fisher Investments. Read More Here ›

Tigress Sees $130 as Oklo Hits Its Milestones

Tigress Financial's Ivan Feinseth started coverage with a Buy rating and a $130.00 target, implying roughly 237% upside. His thesis: the own-and-operate model lets Oklo sell power at premium baseload rates; Aurora's design with fuel recycling could lower fuel costs and unlock radioisotope revenue; and hyperscale data centers provide long-term demand.

Oklo has delivered on goals. Groves reached first criticality "a little over 11 months from groundbreaking," and the Department of Energy approved Aurora INL's preliminary safety analysis. Management expects first isotope revenue "in the first part of next year." A HALEU letter of intent covers fuel for up to five powerhouses with deliveries starting in 2029. The company held $3 billion in cash and securities at quarter-end.

Advertisement

Of the 25 analysts covering Oklo, ratings break down as follows:

Strong Buy: 6

Buy: 9

Hold: 9

Strong Sell: 1

Earnings revisions point down. Over 30 days there were zero up revisions and two down ones. The average 2027 revenue estimate is $8,897,980.

Every SMR Name Sold Off, and Nano Nuclear Shows the Largest Gap

The whole group fell together, so Oklo's slide is partly a sector move. NuScale Power (NYSE:SMR) is down 43.4% this year and 80.88% over 12 months. At $8.03 against a $11.97 target, it offers about 49% upside. Hold ratings lead its 18 analysts, with 10 Holds. Wall Street sees less upside there than at Oklo.

Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ:NNE) is down 31.32% this year. At $16.49 against a $37.57 target, it implies about 128% upside. Six of its 8 analysts give it a Buy or Strong Buy recommendation, though coverage is thin and beta is 5.48.

Nano Nuclear has the largest analyst-implied upside in the group. Oklo sits in the middle with deeper coverage and a bigger cash buffer. The whole restart trade, utilities and fuel included, is the subject of a free report we put together on five nuclear names to own before the renaissance goes mainstream, here.

Oklo Trails the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin

At $38.57, Oklo would have to roughly double to reach the $75.78 consensus, about 96% upside across 25 analysts. The stock is down 46.25% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 14.26%.

Early signs of stabilization emerged. Shares rose 7.23% in the latest session and 3.93% over the past week, though the price remains below the 50-day moving average of $40.61 and the 200-day of $59.46.

Groves Proved Oklo Can Build, but Funding Still Decides the Outcome

Oklo looks compelling if Aurora INL starts on schedule in 2028, isotope revenue arrives next year, and customer capital funds more of the expansion. It looks like a value trap if costs climb, fuel timelines slip, and more share sales reduce holders before revenue flows.

Groves proved Oklo can execute, and $3 billion in cash buys time. The $130.00 target assumes near-flawless execution. A realistic test is whether Oklo closes the gap to the consensus target. Keep an eye on the next Aurora INL cost update.

Released: The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income

(Sponsor) Most people spend their entire working lives focusing on one thing: growing a pile of money. Then they retire and discover the skill they actually need is close to the opposite. Turning that pile into steady income, year after year, through good markets and bad, without ever running out.

It may be the least discussed and most consequential transition in personal finance, and plenty of otherwise careful investors walk into it with no real plan. That is exactly what The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income helps answer. It is a free guide from Fisher Investments covering what your retirement will really cost, where the cash flow should come from, and how much you can safely withdraw each year. Learn more here. Learn More Here ›

Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.

Original Article on Source

Source: “AOL Money”