ESPN sounds upset alert for Florida's Week 5 showdown with Missouri
ESPN sounds upset alert for Florida's Week 5 showdown with Missouri
Adam Dubbin, Gators WireFri, October 2, 2026 at 4:16 PM UTC
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The Florida Gators are one of college football's hottest teams a third of the way through the 2026 regular-season schedule. With four wins under their belt — including a pair of impressive SEC victories — the new edition of the Orange and Blue under Jon Sumrall has been impressive.
Fielding an offense that has been among the best in the sport, along with a special teams unit that has given the Gators a significant edge — not to mention a defensive corps that has performed well enough to keep the team ahead on the scoreboard — Sumrall and Co. seem nearly unstoppable entering Week 5.
However, as good as this Florida team has been, the SEC schedule is a formidable one, and the upcoming road game against the Missouri Tigers could trip up what has been a tremendous start for the program. That is why ESPN's college football expert Bill Connelly has the matchup inside Memorial Stadium flagged with an upset alert.
"Almost no offense is perfect, and a bunch of well-paid defensive coordinators will find ways to frustrate pretty much everyone at some point. But no one's managed to frustrate Florida just yet," Connelly begins.
"The Gators are first in points per possession, grinding away with Jadan Baugh and a great run game, drawing up wide-open passes for Aaron Philo and playing almost perfectly in the red zone. But Missouri held down Kamario Taylor and MSU for a couple of quarters and forced three-and-outs and turnover opportunities well. Can the Tigers become the first team to ding an imperious attack?
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"Mizzou has been good in the field position and turnover departments, but when the Tigers needed one more score late against MSU, Austin Simmons & Co. couldn't get it done. They still don't have a great run game, and while Simmons has been pretty good on passing downs, he has faced a few too many. Florida has allowed at least 21 points against all three FBS opponents it has faced and ranks just 78th in success rate* allowed. The Gators pounce on impatient mistakes, but what happens if they need to force the issue?"
While Connelly believes there is a chance that the Gators could succumb to the Tigers this Saturday, the computer models predict a win for the Orange and Blue: SP+ favors Florida by a mere 2.3 points while the Football Power Index predicts a 7.3-point margin of victory. But Florida has only won twice in six tries in Columbia and has not seen success there since 2019, so it could be an uphill battle for Sumrall's squad.
Kickoff for the Florida-Missouri matchup is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ABC.
* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.
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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: ESPN sounds upset alert for Florida's Week 5 showdown with Missouri
Source: “AOL Sports”
